STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New China Sea
Beijing is now strategically dominating the Caribbean Basin. Washington remains quiet.
Defense & Foreign Affairs staff
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Xi Consolidates Power with Deliberately Contradictory Moves
Xi Jinping needed, once the Party Congress was over, to re-assert calm over his domestic and international arenas, but there seems little he can do to blunt the PRC’s worsening economic situation and accompany-ing social unrest.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | “Global Britain” or “Middling Britain”: A New Crossroads
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 10/2022
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | How Turkey, at the Brink, Fights to Save Its Leader
The Turkish National Intelligence Service is the President’s primary power base.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Moving to the Major Phase of the PRC’s “New Civil War”
The civil war within the party moves into a new phase of suppression of Xi’s opponents and the broader public. The damage to the international economy will be immense. The cost to the Chinese people will be immeasurably more severe.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Iran: Is This the Time When Change Will Come? Or Not?
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 09/2022
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
The Eurasian Bloc Escalates its War for the Americas
Cold War II has taken on a more global definition as the Eurasian bloc emerges.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Samarkand: A Global Change with Washington Out in the Cold
A subtle shift in the global balance has occurred, without direct US input.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Unrest in Nigeria: A SitRep
The proliferation of insurrectionist and criminal threats has pushed Nigeria to a decisive, but by no means irretrievable, point. Its options, however, are likely to become more clear after the 2023 election.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Xi’s Gamble Becomes Precarious, but Where Is the West?
Western leaderships, by missing the cue on the PRC, have drawn down military stores, particularly operational ammunition levels, to dangerous levels to help Ukraine fight Russia. Forces in the Indo-Pacific have become depleted and vulnerable.