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Xi Lashes Out in the Pacific and Africa, But to What End?
The jury remains out as to whether Beijing has a clearly thought-through agenda with the Pacific Islands Forum, meeting this week, or even in Africa, or whether it is just lashing out to show that it still matters. But, rest assured, it is lashing out.
EARLY WARNING | Winning the War of Words Means Knowing When to Fall Silent
Is the Craving for Order Over Chaos Destroying Long-Term Strategic Logic?
Has the US Offensive Peaked?
In an evolving period of transformation, exacerbated by US global initiatives, everything has changed, but nothing has been resolved.
Much Rides on the Success of the New Colombian Government
A trend toward moderate, pro-US governments is emerging in South America. Will it be enough to ensure President Trump’s desire for a Washington-dominated Western Hemisphere?
ESSENTIAL READING | The Worst Pandemic in History
Canada’s Pivotal Role in the New Indo-Pacific
Canada is emerging as a major new factor in the Indo-Pacific as well as in polar strategic realities, particularly since the forced separation of Canada from its stagnant, seven decade-old security situation subordinate to the US.
NORAD is Dead; Long Live NORAD
Transforming military technology coupled with geopolitical realignments are starting to clarify the conditions for a clean-sheet re-evaluation of the US-Canada strategic framework, currently governed by a politically dysfunctional NORAD (North American Air Defense) alliance.
Ankara’s Mistake? The Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Defense Agreement
Strategic Messaging: The Frequent Point of Failure
Has the US’ patchy record in strategic messaging robbed it of the consistent strategic progress it could have had, and denied it the support of various societies around the world? This may be coming to a head in 2026. But first, how do we define “strategic messaging” in the 21st Century?
Trade Winds: The New Global Distribution Pattern, Again
Global trade route patterns are entering a period of massive change in 2026.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Invisible Hand of 21st Century Strategic Warfare
The US continues to think of information operations today more in terms of the facilitating technologies, rather than the manipulation of social patterns and the underlying cultural patterns which shape governments and strategic outcomes.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 07/2026
Equatorial Guinea Vice-President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue said on June 16, 2026, that the Government of Prime Minister Manuel Osa Nsue Nsua had resigned after “failing to meet its objectives”.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Türkiye Aggressively Expands its “Blue Homeland” Doctrine Toward Israel
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Why the Fighting in Ethiopia Matters
Ethiopia’s so-called civil war is very much a proxy war which is poised to transform the strategic balance in the greater Middle East, reducing the power of Egypt and the Suez Canal, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Persian Gulf’s Hormuz choke-point.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
What Happens if Xi Outlasts Trump?
For the CCP — as with the Revolutionary Guard leaders in Tehran — the great victory would be to merely survive the Trump era.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Is the New Strategic Framework Being Built on a “Balance of Ignorance”?
There are many in policy positions who — in all ages — are happy to dispense with grounded, independent, and deep, objective analysis. They want what they want, and they do not seek countervailing arguments to deter them. But it hardly plays into the goal of long-term societal success.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
When Will Cuba Collapse? And What Happens Then?
There can be no clarity in viewing the post-communist era in the Caribbean.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
The New US-Turkish Plan for the Eastern Mediterranean Shatters Traditional Alliance Patterns
Specific moves by the United States and Türkiye cause concern in Israel while also negatively affecting Greece and Cyprus.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
HISTORY | Haile Selassie and the Limits of Collective Security
Ninety years after Ethiopia's appeal to the League of Nations, the episode remains a case study in the gap between formal condemnation and effective deterrence.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Britain’s New Government Focuses on Domestic Welfare
Burnham should be expected to have a brief “holiday” period before he is challenged by the opposition to call new elections, given that the Burnham Government had no mandate from the electorate.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Has the Canada-US Strategic Split Become Irreversible?
And what does that mean for the next era of strategic alliances? A new NATO? A new period of diminished cooperation between the US and Mexico, the US and European NATO, and so on?
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES