STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Scramble for Antarctica
Barriers are coming down to unilateral power projection around the world as treaties and prestige decline for major powers. Now, Antarctica becomes truly an area of competition.
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STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Persia Redux? The Moving Finger Writes
And having writ moves on…Iran now seems poised for a new era. But what is it?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Is Beijing’s Relative Position Declining in the Pacific?
Internal challenges within the US and the PRC seem more likely than external events to determine the overall outcome of their strategic competition, but the broader Pacific context now seems to be nudging incrementally in favor of the US/Western position.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | Somewhere, Over the Horizon
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Türkiye, Belarus Abandon CFE: The Treaties Crumble
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 04/2024
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
ESSENTIAL READING | How Have the Mighty Risen?
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
ESSENTIAL READING | All the News That Fits the View
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
ESSENTIAL READING | Evaluating Warfare Through a Recent Lens
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Türkiye’s New Offensive
The Turkish President, far from accepting his political and economic constraints, is preparing to embark on new military operations for Türkiye to “secure its borders” with Iraq. But this will have profound effects on the US and Greece, as well as others.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
How Long Can Xi Stay Ahead of His Enemies?
The longer Xi staves off his enemies within the Communist Party, the more likely it is that the party will suffer or collapse along with Xi Jinping himself. Something must give, soon.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
Land, Cities and Power: A Changing Strategic Relationship?
Existing economic models — those of the past 200 or so years — are showing weakness as the population growth of that period begins to wane. Does this mean a return to more regional and land-based wealth?