RESOURCES
How the Ukraine War Has Saved Communist China
Beijing finally has the chance to throw off some of its dependency on US food supplies, giving it an enormous new lease of strategic freedom.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Surviving the First Shot
It is said that no plan of campaign survives beyond the first shot fired. But, in the case of the Russia-Ukraine military campaign of February-March 2022, and — most importantly — all that contrived to its beginning, some trends and lessons are already visible.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Under the Ukraine Cloud, PRC Makes First Challenge to AUKUS
The Solomons and Kiribati moves place the PRC into the South Pacific, beyond the First Island Chain. This would inhibit AUKUS’ ability to protect Taiwan in the event of war. It would also put the PRC astride the junction of major undersea comms cables near the Solomons.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EARLY WARNING | The Persistent and Comforting Fog of War
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Canada’s Justin Trudeau Ignites a New Worldwide Trend
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 02/2022
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Military Superiority versus Strategic Superiority
The People’s Liberation Army has made impressive gains. Does it matter?
HISTORY
ESSENTIAL READING | The High Cost of Discovery
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
ESSENTIAL READING | Zero-Day
AFRICA
The PuYi Syndrome
Washington, the Americas, and the Tragedy of PuYi: How the US awakes and finds itself isolated in its own region.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Global Restructuring: Who’s Listening to the Big Powers?
Mali’s rejection of outside influences spelled a major reverse in Africa for France, the West, and ECOWAS, but it brought no joy for Beijing, or for regional or global governance.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
US-Russia: Do All Major Wars Begin With “Phony Wars”?
It started as an information dominance campaign carried out abroad to distract US voters from the unpopularity of their government, running up to new elections. But it has placed Ukraine in a no-win situation, and has already led to a profound and lasting division in NATO.