HISTORY
Walwal to the World: Ethiopia, Empire, Abandoned Principles
How Italy’s strategic ambitions led to an end to the League of Nations and paved the way for World War II, the Cold War, and, indeed, the world of the 2020s.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Guinea-Bissau’s Instability Returns
Guinea-Bissau’s November 2025 coup continues the trend away from Western-influenced practices and toward a resumption of the time when Africa’s future is shaped by Africa.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
Universal Unrest and its Meaning
The crowds are in the streets, everywhere, and in different forms, showing signs of fatigue, anger, despair, and more. How does this impact policymaking, economics, and defense decision-making? And how can we think about, and cope, with this phenomenon?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | A Storm at the World’s Trade Hub: the Bab el-Mandeb
Some regional states can claim Washington’s attention, which makes the US’s possible moves over Somaliland recognition more delicate. Control over this East-West sea route hub is so critical to trade and strategic dominance that Trump may seize what leverage he wants and leave the details for later.
SOVEREIGNTY
Sovereignty, Borders, If You Can Keep Them
One of the founders of the post-British United States of America, Benjamin Franklin, was asked what would be the nature of the new nation. He answered: “A republic; if you can keep it.”
HISTORY
Red Sea History is Today’s Framework
Sovereignty, Strategy, and the Red Sea: Ethiopia’s 1875-1876 War and the Return of Global Competition in North-East Africa.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Africa and Religious Warfare: The “Christian Persecution” Claim
The sudden US charge and the deafening silence which followed raise serious questions.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
Searching for “Democracy 2.0”, or Something Better?
The world is divided into those who think nothing can change the fundamental shape and trajectory of society, and those who think radical dislocation is already emerging. But now, more than at any time in the past 3 centuries, change is occurring, whether we wish to have a hand in shaping it, or not
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 10/2025
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Yesterday’s Men? Where are Africa’s Leaders for Tomorrow?
West Africa, despite a wave of political turmoil, ranging from coups and fragile democracies to insurgencies and secessionist movements, has maintained some of the continent’s most resilient democratic states.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 09/2025
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The Opaque New Phase of the Red Sea Competition
Washington had, by late August 2025, finally begun to focus on the strategic importance of the Red Sea-Suez sea lane and the essential element of control of the littorals which dominate the trade passage. But it is late in joining the party.