ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Pivot: Did NATO’s Serbian War Set the Stage for the Decline of Western Power?
Is the US only now starting to regain some of an element of strategic military impetus after the peaking of its capabilities and prestige became evident with the Clinton War against Serbia in 1999? The war spurred Beijing and Moscow into reviewing their defenses.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Beijing, Increasingly Desperate, Continues Assault on Eswatini
PRC's Ambassador to South Africa issued a 7-page statement to Eswatini demanding that it change its diplomatic allegiance from the ROC or face total isolation from the African and world community. Beijing is now lashing out to subdue what is seen as a mounting global repudiation of Beijing.
CRIME & CORRUPTION
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Coronavirus, Corruption: Africa’s Inheritance from Beijing
A staff estimate on a topic of current significance.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
What Does Beijing Do Now?
Presidential elections in Taiwan repudiated PRC pressure, just as protests in Hong Kong have done. Beijing hoped 2019 would be the year that all significant opposition to its strategic rise would be silenced.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
What Happens in the Vacuum After the Passing of Sultan Qaboos of Oman?
Oman will remain a pillar of stability because of Qaboos’ legacy, but he will be profoundly missed.
CRIME & CORRUPTION
Death of a Nation: South Africa’s Refusal to Correct its Course of Corruption and Anger
Collapse in South Africa would have a significant impact on all Southern African regional states and societies, but it would also impact the global trading community and the guarantee of Atlantic-to-Indian Ocean maritime security.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
State of the World: Parlous, Transforming, Yet in Some Ways Stabilizing, Optimistic
The optimism may be hard to find, but the fact that crisis is now clearly upon us gives a certain clarity.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | South China Sea Clashes Inch the Balance Against Beijing
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
The Butterfly Effect of Tremors in Small States
In chaos theory, a minute localized change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. And the elections in Dominica will play a significant rôle in the future strategic futures of Beijing as well as Washington, DC. But the impact will also reach Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and so on.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Uzbekistan Re-Emerges as the Strategic “Heartland of the Heartland”
Uzbekistan is emerging as the “strategic surprise player”, galvanizing the Silk Road and Central Asia.
SOVEREIGNTY