DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Alliance Fracture is Now Global
It’s not just NATO; it’s the SCO, BRICS, and the Quad. And what of the UN?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Red Sea: Security Issue Surges as Ethiopian Situation Flares
Red Sea security suddenly went off the radar as far as the international community was concerned, but it is back and integrally related to the Persian Gulf crisis.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Transformation: the Eye of the Storm
Looking at the future from within the now-maturing maelstrom of trends and actions which are shaping the next strategic era and the probable new “rules-based world order”.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | Curfew Tolls the Knell of Parting Day
Have I not told you, these recent years, that the cycle of great civilizational change is again upon us all? That, in the familiarity of days passing into days, the certainty of our lifetimes is being brought into a new world?
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 02/2026
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Taking the Magic out of Strategic Analysis
Why were so few states prepared for the major strategic breakpoints over the past 50 years, when Defense & Foreign Affairs had consistently laid out just why change was occurring?
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | 2026: The Consequential Years Gather Momentum
It is not as though 2025 was an inconsequential year. Many strategic trends came into focus, particularly around the (finally) visible collapse of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). But 2026 will see the clarification of even more events of global consequence.
HISTORY
Walwal to the World: Ethiopia, Empire, Abandoned Principles
How Italy’s strategic ambitions led to an end to the League of Nations and paved the way for World War II, the Cold War, and, indeed, the world of the 2020s.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Guinea-Bissau’s Instability Returns
Guinea-Bissau’s November 2025 coup continues the trend away from Western-influenced practices and toward a resumption of the time when Africa’s future is shaped by Africa.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
Universal Unrest and its Meaning
The crowds are in the streets, everywhere, and in different forms, showing signs of fatigue, anger, despair, and more. How does this impact policymaking, economics, and defense decision-making? And how can we think about, and cope, with this phenomenon?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | A Storm at the World’s Trade Hub: the Bab el-Mandeb
Some regional states can claim Washington’s attention, which makes the US’s possible moves over Somaliland recognition more delicate. Control over this East-West sea route hub is so critical to trade and strategic dominance that Trump may seize what leverage he wants and leave the details for later.
SOVEREIGNTY
Sovereignty, Borders, If You Can Keep Them
One of the founders of the post-British United States of America, Benjamin Franklin, was asked what would be the nature of the new nation. He answered: “A republic; if you can keep it.”