ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
Trade Winds: The New Global Distribution Pattern, Again
Global trade route patterns are entering a period of massive change in 2026.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Clearing the Paths to and from Central Asia
Resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute could effectively end the OSCE’s Cold War and post-Cold War era of “freezing conflicts” rather than resolving them decisively through the efforts of the opposing parties. This is part of the post-post-Cold War world of substantive change.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
The Caucasus: How Close is Armenia to Collapse?
Yerevan’s long list of self-inflicted wounds has culminated with its “break with Moscow”.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Türkiye Makes its Break with the West
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Nagorno-Karabakh's Fate Was Sealed by the INSTC
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Türkiye’s Strategic Penetration of Africa
Türkiye has established itself as a major strategic force in Africa, and works extensively through front groups controlled by its national intelligence service and a related “private military contractor”, SADAT.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Has the West Abandoned Central Asia, and Vice-Versa?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Great Game: The Endless, Vital Game
Russia is emerging as a major victor in the Great Game. Classical geopolitics lives on.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
ESSENTIAL READING | Looking Back to Today
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Unready Now; Uncertain Future
Economic, social, and military instabilities escalate, but readiness to face them evaporates.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Samarkand: A Global Change with Washington Out in the Cold
A subtle shift in the global balance has occurred, without direct US input.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Military Conflict Evolves, and with It, Uncertainty
Armed conflicts are now more likely to occur, but warfighting lessons — from Russia-Ukraine and the PRC-ROC/US — are still incomplete, and outcomes uncertain.