STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Northern Tier: Changing Fortunes in the Caspian
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The Road to Damascus is Paved with Ill-Intent
The Biblical conversion of Paul to Christianity “on the road to Damascus” implied a turning point for the onetime antagonist of Christ. But now the road to Damascus is an unmarked and uncertain path, full of treachery and hidden motives ...
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Complex Soup: The “Eastern-Mediterranean, Central-Asian, East Asian, Euro-Atlantic and Others” Unified Dilemma
A butterfly flaps its wings at a nuclear test site in Punggye-ri in North Korea, and a political equation becomes a tidal wave in Tehran. It’s more complicated than that, but, yes, everything is related.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Northern Tier: Iran Effectively Sidesteps Turkey
With a major new agreement to deliver energy to Europe via Iraq and Syria, Iran continues to transform the region, and fuels the impetus and rivalry for Turkey’s new “Ottoman Region” moves.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Eastern Mediterranean as the Eye of the Hurricane
The crisis now focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean had Jimmy Carter’s overthrow of the Shah of Iran as its basis, and now centers around the competition — and cooperation — of Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the People’s Republic of China.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Afghanistan and Beyond - First Instalment: The Price of Going Home
The strategic ramifications of a US-led withdrawal from Afghanistan are already becoming evident, from Nagorno-Karabakh and Kyrgyzstan to Europe: There is a penalty for early withdrawal ...
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The Eurasian Strategic Matrix: Europe’s Latest Tinder-Box
From Broadbrush Historic Mega-Trends to Imperative Concrete Regional Undertakings
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Kurdistan May Yet Challenge Iran
Iran has succeeded as the midwife in dividing Iraq, but the growing power and autonomy of Iraqi Kurdistan may yet backfire on Tehran, and the US.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Global Strategic Trends: Options in the Indian Ocean Century
How do nations move, “post-Afghanistan”, post-superpowers, and in the Indian Ocean Century?
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Wooing Iran Through a Turkey-Armenia Rapprochement
An estimate of an area of key current significance.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Diplomatic Success; Strategic Failure
The Turkey-Armenia accord stirs a multitude of strategic issues and potential outcomes, as the US abandons Azerbaijan to woo Iran’s clerical leaders. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton moved mountains to achieve a diplomatic success, which may be a strategic failure for the US.