DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
AUKUS Begins the Unveiling
One of the biggest single multi-national defense investments has begun. But it’s not all plain sailing, and it has ramifications well beyond the People’s Republic of China.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
China: Beijing’s Brave Face
Beijing’s latest forecasts are a breathtaking disguise for the abyss which it faces.
AUKUS alliance
CURRENT ESTIMATE | AUKUS: The Global Alliance is Not Just About Submarines
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
AUKUS: Some Steps Forward, Some Back
The AUKUS alliance is moving toward a viable global operational structure, as much to deal with the world after the potential collapse of the Communist Party of China, as to confront Beijing today. But is Australia, its smallest partner, still thinking just too small?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Elections Which Mark 2023 as a Key Year
The reality is that elections, even in small nation-states, can have global consequences.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | The Pivotal Return of Strategic Vision to the South-West Pacific
The return to the Fijian leadership of Prime Minister Rabuka is a great blow to the interests of the People’s Republic of China in the South-West Pacific, but much needs to be done, quickly, to solidify his ability to retain power in the face of opponents prepared to take extreme measures.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Unready Now; Uncertain Future
Economic, social, and military instabilities escalate, but readiness to face them evaporates.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Alliances: Know When to Fold 'em
We cling to old alliances as we cling to childhood blankets, and treat them just as badly. But do we understand them, and their finite lifespans and purposes?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | “Global Britain” or “Middling Britain”: A New Crossroads
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Xi’s Gamble Becomes Precarious, but Where Is the West?
Western leaderships, by missing the cue on the PRC, have drawn down military stores, particularly operational ammunition levels, to dangerous levels to help Ukraine fight Russia. Forces in the Indo-Pacific have become depleted and vulnerable.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | The South Pacific: A War to Start All Wars?
Beijing ups its Indo-Pacific thrust while the West diverts its resources into Europe.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES