SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
RESOURCES
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Beijing’s Energy Crisis Hobbles the PRC, and Hurts All
HISTORY
Consequences: Today It Is Us; Tomorrow It Is You
The Horn of Africa is sliding toward a major war which seems likely to rapidly expand to embrace the major powers. The situation has strong parallels to the 1935 Italian invasion of Ethiopia, which began World War II and destroyed the League of Nations.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Perception is Power in the Beijing Gavotte
Beijing senses some real relief in the way the US is handling bilateral discussions.
Afghanistan
AUKUS: The Dysfunctional Birth and Accidental Promise of the West’s New Global Alliance
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States hastily created a new global alliance, but its founders have different views of alliance priorities. AUKUS might actually work, but the US seems intent on jeopardizing Red Sea security, critical to making the bloc work.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Global Trends: Lostpolitik
Germany’s 2021 elections accelerated the leadership vacuum in the European Union and its growing strategic irrelevance, but equally highlighted the tentative rise of a new global power framework …
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Global Ramifications of the PRC’s Economic Implosion
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 09/2021
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Strategic Gambling of the Blind
The People’s Republic of China fights for survival; Russia surges; the US attempts to rebuild credibility; India sees its great opportunity; other powers are either dazed or prowling …
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New “Go” Complexity of the Global “Great Game”
The chess-board of Central Asia’s “Great Game” was transformed into the intense complexity of the ancient Chinese game of Go — Weiqi — when the collapse of the latest phase of the eternal Afghan wars sent the consequences virally through global security frameworks.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | New AUKUS Alliance Constrains Beijing; Transforms Indo-Pac
The AUKUS Alliance starts the process of the US ceding back to Britain some of its historical maritime presence.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
New Realities Emerging in the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific is the anvil of a new world. But what exactly is the new world?