SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Grand Strategy: Opening Gambits
The set-piece Black Sea confrontation between the Royal Navy and Russia served as a theatrical start of a new era of conflict.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
2021: Return of the Leaders
The great malaise of 2021 will be the year of opportunity for leaders to make their mark.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Eurasia's Pivotal Change
Armenia’s brief new war with Azerbaijan changed everything for both states, and for Nagorno-Karabakh, but it also substantially altered the Eurasian balance.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
The US and the World: In With the Old; Out with the New
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Turkey and Russia Inch Closer to Conflict Over Gas Lines
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | The Central Asian Bloc Galvanizes Rapidly at a Critical Time
Pakistan is the best option for Central Asia to get workable Indian Ocean ports, at Karachi and Gwadar. But this may be enough to trigger India into moving forward with its planned war against Pakistan-held Azad Kashmir.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Can Erdogan’s “Conflict in All Directions” Strategy Work?
Turkey seems to be at war on all fronts, particularly with its nominal allies. How can that work?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Crisis or Opportunity in the Southern Caucasus?
US legislation would unambiguously recognize that the “illegally occupied” areas of Azerbaijan would include the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts occupied by Armenia since the early 1990s. This would be a significant political advance for Azerbaijan.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran Between Temptation and Desperation
A significant impact is likely on world energy markets over 2020 along with escalation of attacks by Iranian-backed units against US and other targets following the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Central Asia as the New Indo-Pacific Power
The Central Asian states may finally find cohesion … and warm water ports in the Indian Ocean.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Uzbekistan Re-Emerges as the Strategic “Heartland of the Heartland”
Uzbekistan is emerging as the “strategic surprise player”, galvanizing the Silk Road and Central Asia.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Nuclear Powers in the Act of Colliding
Iran now considers war against Israel to be feasible and winnable…and Israel responds