SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The Indo-Pacific: EABO and the Need for Speed
Strategic shock in the Pacific might occur as suddenly as it did in Ukraine. Who's ready?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Initial Strategic Lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War
Anything your adversary (a) wants you to do, (b) goads you to do, (c) offers to you as a gift, or (c) says you will do is almost certainly something you do not want to do. The Ukraine conflict was, by April 2022, offering a wide range of strategic, actical, and technological lessons.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | On the Concept of Strategic Inevitability
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Indonesia’s Uncertainties Pique Beijing’s Hopes
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Ethiopians Have “Become Lost”: What’s Next?
Could a military intervention be the only answer if the system becomes more stressed, and external pressures threaten the break-up of Ethiopia?
RESOURCES
How the Ukraine War Has Saved Communist China
Beijing finally has the chance to throw off some of its dependency on US food supplies, giving it an enormous new lease of strategic freedom.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Surviving the First Shot
It is said that no plan of campaign survives beyond the first shot fired. But, in the case of the Russia-Ukraine military campaign of February-March 2022, and — most importantly — all that contrived to its beginning, some trends and lessons are already visible.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Under the Ukraine Cloud, PRC Makes First Challenge to AUKUS
The Solomons and Kiribati moves place the PRC into the South Pacific, beyond the First Island Chain. This would inhibit AUKUS’ ability to protect Taiwan in the event of war. It would also put the PRC astride the junction of major undersea comms cables near the Solomons.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EARLY WARNING | The Persistent and Comforting Fog of War
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 02/2022
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Military Superiority versus Strategic Superiority
The People’s Liberation Army has made impressive gains. Does it matter?
AFRICA
The PuYi Syndrome
Washington, the Americas, and the Tragedy of PuYi: How the US awakes and finds itself isolated in its own region.