DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Has the US Offensive Peaked?
In an evolving period of transformation, exacerbated by US global initiatives, everything has changed, but nothing has been resolved.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
NORAD is Dead; Long Live NORAD
Transforming military technology coupled with geopolitical realignments are starting to clarify the conditions for a clean-sheet re-evaluation of the US-Canada strategic framework, currently governed by a politically dysfunctional NORAD (North American Air Defense) alliance.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Strategic Messaging: The Frequent Point of Failure
Has the US’ patchy record in strategic messaging robbed it of the consistent strategic progress it could have had, and denied it the support of various societies around the world? This may be coming to a head in 2026. But first, how do we define “strategic messaging” in the 21st Century?
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
Trade Winds: The New Global Distribution Pattern, Again
Global trade route patterns are entering a period of massive change in 2026.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Invisible Hand of 21st Century Strategic Warfare
The US continues to think of information operations today more in terms of the facilitating technologies, rather than the manipulation of social patterns and the underlying cultural patterns which shape governments and strategic outcomes.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Why the Fighting in Ethiopia Matters
Ethiopia’s so-called civil war is very much a proxy war which is poised to transform the strategic balance in the greater Middle East, reducing the power of Egypt and the Suez Canal, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Persian Gulf’s Hormuz choke-point.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
What Happens if Xi Outlasts Trump?
For the CCP — as with the Revolutionary Guard leaders in Tehran — the great victory would be to merely survive the Trump era.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
When Will Cuba Collapse? And What Happens Then?
There can be no clarity in viewing the post-communist era in the Caribbean.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
The Next Strategic Advantage: the Restoration of Literacy
Perhaps the “experiment” in universal, forced literacy, has been a failure, an historical blip. Literacy is in retreat because of technology and because inquiring minds challenge leadership patterns. Yet intellectual capacity— signified by literacy— determines strategic success. What is to be done?
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 06/2026
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Assessing Long-Term Threats and Trends
The most important, least invested, security priority
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR