SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
RESOURCES
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Beijing’s Energy Crisis Hobbles the PRC, and Hurts All
HISTORY
ESSENTIAL READING | Failure to Plan
HISTORY
ESSENTIAL READING | Out of Disaster….
HISTORY
Consequences: Today It Is Us; Tomorrow It Is You
The Horn of Africa is sliding toward a major war which seems likely to rapidly expand to embrace the major powers. The situation has strong parallels to the 1935 Italian invasion of Ethiopia, which began World War II and destroyed the League of Nations.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Persistent Intervention: The Kremlin’s Influence Operations in Ukraine
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Strategic Deception: Beijing’s Potemkin Silos?
Are the PRC’s “new ICBM silo fields” just a major strategic deception operation aimed at pushing the US to commit precious dollars down the wrong path?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Bracing for an Unusual Climax in the Horn of Africa
It was possible that the Ethiopian Military could have staged a coup against Dr Abiy, but even a military-controlled post-Abiy government would have had to move quickly to stop the rebels and their foreign sponsors, which include the Egyptian and US governments.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Perception is Power in the Beijing Gavotte
Beijing senses some real relief in the way the US is handling bilateral discussions.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Return of Free-Form Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East, Northern Tier, and Africa
Coups, as a form of “regime change”, are once again “permissible” in the greater Middle East and Africa as out-of-region powers lose traction. But then what?
Afghanistan
AUKUS: The Dysfunctional Birth and Accidental Promise of the West’s New Global Alliance
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States hastily created a new global alliance, but its founders have different views of alliance priorities. AUKUS might actually work, but the US seems intent on jeopardizing Red Sea security, critical to making the bloc work.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Global Trends: Lostpolitik
Germany’s 2021 elections accelerated the leadership vacuum in the European Union and its growing strategic irrelevance, but equally highlighted the tentative rise of a new global power framework …