PERSONNEL
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Beijing, Increasingly Desperate, Continues Assault on Eswatini
PRC's Ambassador to South Africa issued a 7-page statement to Eswatini demanding that it change its diplomatic allegiance from the ROC or face total isolation from the African and world community. Beijing is now lashing out to subdue what is seen as a mounting global repudiation of Beijing.
CRIME & CORRUPTION
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Coronavirus, Corruption: Africa’s Inheritance from Beijing
A staff estimate on a topic of current significance.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
ESSENTIAL READING | Creating and Saving
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Uzbekistan’s Most Significant Strategic Shift Since the Soviet Era
CRIME & CORRUPTION
Death of a Nation: South Africa’s Refusal to Correct its Course of Corruption and Anger
Collapse in South Africa would have a significant impact on all Southern African regional states and societies, but it would also impact the global trading community and the guarantee of Atlantic-to-Indian Ocean maritime security.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
State of the World: Parlous, Transforming, Yet in Some Ways Stabilizing, Optimistic
The optimism may be hard to find, but the fact that crisis is now clearly upon us gives a certain clarity.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 01/2020
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
The Butterfly Effect of Tremors in Small States
In chaos theory, a minute localized change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. And the elections in Dominica will play a significant rôle in the future strategic futures of Beijing as well as Washington, DC. But the impact will also reach Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and so on.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran Between Temptation and Desperation
A significant impact is likely on world energy markets over 2020 along with escalation of attacks by Iranian-backed units against US and other targets following the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Uzbekistan Re-Emerges as the Strategic “Heartland of the Heartland”
Uzbekistan is emerging as the “strategic surprise player”, galvanizing the Silk Road and Central Asia.
SOVEREIGNTY