SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
War as a (Fatal) Diversion From Reality
Egypt has been in a proxy war with Ethiopia. Ethiopia failed to grasp this, because war would seem fatal for both sides. Then Egypt stepped back from the brink.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Crisis or Opportunity in the Southern Caucasus?
US legislation would unambiguously recognize that the “illegally occupied” areas of Azerbaijan would include the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts occupied by Armenia since the early 1990s. This would be a significant political advance for Azerbaijan.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Global Power Disparity Resumes for Africa, Latin America
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Turkey Attempts Stand-Alone Power Status, But…
Erdogan is rapidly running out of options, and allies. His only firm ally is Qatar; his relationships with Russia, Iran, and China are hedged with mutual distrust and caution. Indeed, the question should increasingly be asked: Does Erdogan actually have a power base absent MIT?
HISTORY
ESSENTIAL READING | Rethinking Everything
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
State of the World: Parlous, Transforming, Yet in Some Ways Stabilizing, Optimistic
The optimism may be hard to find, but the fact that crisis is now clearly upon us gives a certain clarity.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Turkey on the Prowl Again
Turkey’s revised policy for the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East is based on expanding its illegal occupation of Cyprus to dominate the entire island and the region. It is upgrading capabilities accordingly.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
EARLY WARNING | When Ethics Collide With Strategic Logic
SOVEREIGNTY
A New “East-West” Fault Line
A new strategic framework is possible in which the US could regain some leverage in the Balkans and Eastern Mediterranean. And it could see a resolution of the Kosovo problem which has dogged US credibility in the region since 2008.
SOVEREIGNTY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | A Window of Opportunity Opens for the US in the Balkans
Events have conspired in the Eastern Mediterranean to open a new chapter of strategic opportunity for the United States, just as US-Turkish relations have moved into a profound downward direction.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Turkey After the F-35 Cancellation: the Potential Impact on Cyprus
Turkey's actions toward Cyprus are now likely to strongly reflect the breakdown in Turkey's relations with the United States and the European Union.
SOVEREIGNTY
The UK and the West: Britannia Waives the Rules
Whither the United Kingdom? What are the options — and more importantly, what are the strategic priorities — for the Government of Boris Johnson? Can the UK recover from its several decades of strategic decline as a result of its European Union membership.