STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Jakarta: Balancing, Yet Moving
Indonesia's movement toward greater regional economic and strategic power is showing success, and it is occurring with excruciating care to balance its position between superpowers.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Washington's Stumbling War Against Ethiopia
How the US plunges into the defeat of its own and Western interests in the Horn of Africa
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Central Asia's Theater
How the US withdrawal from Afghanistan started a chain which led to Kazakhstan's coup
HISTORY
Consequences: Today It Is Us; Tomorrow It Is You
The Horn of Africa is sliding toward a major war which seems likely to rapidly expand to embrace the major powers. The situation has strong parallels to the 1935 Italian invasion of Ethiopia, which began World War II and destroyed the League of Nations.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Persistent Intervention: The Kremlin’s Influence Operations in Ukraine
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Uzbekistan Becomes a Key Eurasian Pivot
Uzbekistan’s presidential election confirmed the nation’s retention of a strong line to cope with the collapse of neighboring Afghanistan. Tashkent is preparing for the storm.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Bracing for an Unusual Climax in the Horn of Africa
It was possible that the Ethiopian Military could have staged a coup against Dr Abiy, but even a military-controlled post-Abiy government would have had to move quickly to stop the rebels and their foreign sponsors, which include the Egyptian and US governments.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
EARLY WARNING | The Saga of the Zahedis
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Talking Itself Into War: Algeria’s Answer to its fin d’ère?
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense & Intelligence Appointments - 10/2021
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Perception is Power in the Beijing Gavotte
Beijing senses some real relief in the way the US is handling bilateral discussions.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Return of Free-Form Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East, Northern Tier, and Africa
Coups, as a form of “regime change”, are once again “permissible” in the greater Middle East and Africa as out-of-region powers lose traction. But then what?