GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
2021: Return of the Leaders
The great malaise of 2021 will be the year of opportunity for leaders to make their mark.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Twilight for the US-UK “Special Relationship”. Then What?
A cool US relationship with the UK means that Commonwealth countries such as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand could also view Washington with a more jaundiced eye, and strengthen, or rebuild, their traditional ties with the UK.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Have US Sanctions Created the Basis for a Strong Iran-PRC-Russia Bloc?
The burgeoning Moscow-Beijing-Tehran friendship spells a weakening of the impact of US sanctions. Tehran’s relief from sanctions in the short-term could lead indirectly to the PRC’s long-term control over Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, cementing Beijing’s footprint in the region.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Sound Reasons For the UK's “Back to the Future” Posture
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Eurasia's Pivotal Change
Armenia’s brief new war with Azerbaijan changed everything for both states, and for Nagorno-Karabakh, but it also substantially altered the Eurasian balance.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The Long and Short of Ethiopia's Current Wars
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Ethiopia's Decisive War
Homer, almost 3,000 years ago, noted in the Iliad that Zeus, King of the Gods on Mount Olympus, went “to feast with the Æthiopians, loyal, lordly men, and all of the gods went with him”. Are the Gods still with the Ethiopians?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
The US and the World: In With the Old; Out with the New
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Has the EU Brexit Negotiating Style Doomed the EU Itself?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Turkey and Russia Inch Closer to Conflict Over Gas Lines
CRIME & CORRUPTION
Terror and Crime: The Indissoluble Marriage’s Second Honeymoon
Contact and cooperation between militant groups and organized crime — an historical match of illegals — has flourished since the early 1990s, eroding political stability around the world.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Amphibious Operations in a New Era of Offensive Total War
The world has begun its move back to an era of offensive warfare after some seven decades of defensive strategic thinking. One of the sharp points of power projection is expeditionary warfare, so a new era of amphibious warfare thinking must now occur.