PERSONNEL
SOVEREIGNTY
A New “East-West” Fault Line
A new strategic framework is possible in which the US could regain some leverage in the Balkans and Eastern Mediterranean. And it could see a resolution of the Kosovo problem which has dogged US credibility in the region since 2008.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Climate: Changing Political, Strategic Traction?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran Crosses a Threshold to Secure Regional Power
Iran’s leadership is confident it has succeeded in deterring the US from attack, and that Iran has now secured regional dominance as the US, it believes, winds down in the Persian Gulf.
SOVEREIGNTY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | How Much Could the Loss of West Papua Hurt Indonesia?
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense & Intelligence Appointments - 09/2019
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
War, With and Without the Media: Beijing and New Delhi Each Tackle Critical Information Dominance Challenges
The net effect of the PRC and India simultaneously addressing “domestic” unrest may reflect current international distractions, but long-term damage to their strategic freedom of action is likely to occur
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Yemen Starts to Fracture, But is the Biggest Strategic Loss to the US?
The differentiation between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the UAE and Oman … the impact on Bahrain … the uncertainties of the proposed pax Russo-Sinica in the Gulf … the prospect of a new opening for the US …
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | Change, When it is Seen to Appear, is Sudden
SOVEREIGNTY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | A Window of Opportunity Opens for the US in the Balkans
Events have conspired in the Eastern Mediterranean to open a new chapter of strategic opportunity for the United States, just as US-Turkish relations have moved into a profound downward direction.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Defense and Strategic Planning Challenges in an Entirely New Age
Trends in geopolitical, economic, and technological developments increasingly need to be viewed within a global context. The age of stovepiping, which worked during much of the Cold War, cannot be expected to work now, or through the coming decades. Everything is connected.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | India's Biggest Gamble? Crushing the Kashmir Problem
India, having finally lost the battle to win the Kashmir Valley's Muslim-majority population by political means, began moving in August 2019 to win control over its restive region by overwhelming punitive action. But it risks a longlasting strategic blowback.