STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EARLY WARNING | Settling in for the Long, Long War
SOVEREIGNTY
The Inevitable Return of Sovereignty
History's cyclical patterns make the case that sovereignty must make its return as the dominant driver of the global strategic architecture of the 21st Century, whether we like it or not. And apparently most societies demand it, particularly when uncertainty strikes.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | US's Turkey Divorce Complicated by Qatar, Iran, Syria, Russia
The strategic path along which the US and Turkey are traveling has an element of fatalism about it, given that each side fears the divorce for a range of different reasons.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Greater Syria: Can Wishing Make It So?
Historical fatalism, water and food shortages, and jihadism conspire to set the stage for a major conflict escalation based on “Greater Syria”. It is already underway.
Afghanistan
The Triumph of Belief: Persian Cæsar?
Not just Iran’s Cæsar abroad, Major-General Qasem Soleimani is finally being recognized as Iran’s “Man on Horseback”.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Triumph of Belief: Red Sea Rising
The Red Sea is emerging as a key global strategic dynamic thanks to a revolution begun in Ethiopia. The transformation moves back to a 3,000-year-old pattern, and is far from done.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Ethiopia Moves to Re-Establish Itself as a Red Sea Power
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 07/2018
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Turkey on the March
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Africa I: Abiy Transforms the Horn, and Egypt’s Position
Indicators of emerging patterns of global significance
SOVEREIGNTY