SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Sri Lanka and the Start of a Starvation Pandemic
Poor governmental decisions are leading to starvation…and public retaliation.
AFRICA
EN CLAIR | Hope in Ethiopia?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Immediate Strategic Consequences of the Ukraine War
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CALIR | The End of “Business as Usual”
The Ukraine war has helped crystallize a confluence of negative strategic trends.
HISTORY
Reflections as We Move Into the New Global Architecture
Defense & Foreign Affairs has turned 50. It has lived through a transformative period, but one which serves only as a prelude to a totally new era. Should we be celebrating? Or should we be equipping ourselves for a very different future? The answer is surprisingly positive.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
The Collapse of Wisdom and the Rise of Chaos
Wisdom versus Desire and Intellect; Age versus Youth; Individuals versus Crowds; Country versus Town: This is more than just social media-driven polarization.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Ethiopians Have “Become Lost”: What’s Next?
Could a military intervention be the only answer if the system becomes more stressed, and external pressures threaten the break-up of Ethiopia?
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Global Restructuring: Who’s Listening to the Big Powers?
Mali’s rejection of outside influences spelled a major reverse in Africa for France, the West, and ECOWAS, but it brought no joy for Beijing, or for regional or global governance.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Jakarta: Balancing, Yet Moving
Indonesia's movement toward greater regional economic and strategic power is showing success, and it is occurring with excruciating care to balance its position between superpowers.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Washington's Stumbling War Against Ethiopia
How the US plunges into the defeat of its own and Western interests in the Horn of Africa
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Return of Free-Form Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East, Northern Tier, and Africa
Coups, as a form of “regime change”, are once again “permissible” in the greater Middle East and Africa as out-of-region powers lose traction. But then what?
Afghanistan
AUKUS: The Dysfunctional Birth and Accidental Promise of the West’s New Global Alliance
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States hastily created a new global alliance, but its founders have different views of alliance priorities. AUKUS might actually work, but the US seems intent on jeopardizing Red Sea security, critical to making the bloc work.