STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
The Collapse of Wisdom and the Rise of Chaos
Wisdom versus Desire and Intellect; Age versus Youth; Individuals versus Crowds; Country versus Town: This is more than just social media-driven polarization.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Ethiopians Have “Become Lost”: What’s Next?
Could a military intervention be the only answer if the system becomes more stressed, and external pressures threaten the break-up of Ethiopia?
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Global Restructuring: Who’s Listening to the Big Powers?
Mali’s rejection of outside influences spelled a major reverse in Africa for France, the West, and ECOWAS, but it brought no joy for Beijing, or for regional or global governance.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Jakarta: Balancing, Yet Moving
Indonesia's movement toward greater regional economic and strategic power is showing success, and it is occurring with excruciating care to balance its position between superpowers.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Washington's Stumbling War Against Ethiopia
How the US plunges into the defeat of its own and Western interests in the Horn of Africa
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Return of Free-Form Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East, Northern Tier, and Africa
Coups, as a form of “regime change”, are once again “permissible” in the greater Middle East and Africa as out-of-region powers lose traction. But then what?
Afghanistan
AUKUS: The Dysfunctional Birth and Accidental Promise of the West’s New Global Alliance
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States hastily created a new global alliance, but its founders have different views of alliance priorities. AUKUS might actually work, but the US seems intent on jeopardizing Red Sea security, critical to making the bloc work.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Beijing, Moscow, Ankara Push US Out of Red Sea Dominance
State Dept. sources admit privately that they were using the same playbook against Ethiopia as they used during the US Clinton Administration against Serbia in the 1990s to break up Yugoslavia and Serbia.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | We Have Met the Enemy…
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
EN CLAIR | Cold War Redux: The West Loses Africa’s Horn
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
EN CLAIR | Ethiopia: Anti-Climax in a Crisis
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The RedMed: War and Decline on the Nile
Ethiopia, facing a myriad of strategic domestic and regional challenges, just bought some breathing space. But time is running out to resolve a half-century’s accretion of corruption, cruelty, mismanagement…and international rivalries.