CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
EN CLAIR | An African Church Schism Becomes a Global Trigger
Ethiopia’s next leader could create the grand coalition of the Red Sea.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New Middle East and Africa: The Red Sea Change of Command
Moscow has moved rapidly to rebuild its influence in the Horn of Africa — and Africa generally — to position itself for “Cold War II”, and Washington is attempting to catch up.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Horn of Africa - War is Over: Long Live the War?
Part of the great war in Ethiopia may be over. But another part is still virulent.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CALIR | The End of “Business as Usual”
The Ukraine war has helped crystallize a confluence of negative strategic trends.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Ethiopians Have “Become Lost”: What’s Next?
Could a military intervention be the only answer if the system becomes more stressed, and external pressures threaten the break-up of Ethiopia?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Washington's Stumbling War Against Ethiopia
How the US plunges into the defeat of its own and Western interests in the Horn of Africa
Afghanistan
AUKUS: The Dysfunctional Birth and Accidental Promise of the West’s New Global Alliance
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States hastily created a new global alliance, but its founders have different views of alliance priorities. AUKUS might actually work, but the US seems intent on jeopardizing Red Sea security, critical to making the bloc work.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
EN CLAIR | Ethiopia: Anti-Climax in a Crisis
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The RedMed: War and Decline on the Nile
Ethiopia, facing a myriad of strategic domestic and regional challenges, just bought some breathing space. But time is running out to resolve a half-century’s accretion of corruption, cruelty, mismanagement…and international rivalries.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Ethiopia Revives as a Red Sea Power
Put aside age-old conflict-driving myths, and opportunities abound.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Seeing Reality in the Red Sea Wars
Could the Ethiopia-Egypt conflict be reversed into an alliance?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Iran-Israel Confrontation Divides the US from Sunni Arabia
...It is unlikely that Washington’s present strategies will result in a restoration of the influence it once had in Tehran or Cairo.