DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
The Middle East Returns to Itself?
And how the Trump-Sisi summit marked a significant further decline in Washington’s influence in the region.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Moving Beyond Strategic Distractions
The deep and intractable humanitarian morass of the Yemen conflict has diverted attention away from the broader strategic framework, with serious consequences.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Changes in the Indian Ocean at the Core of the “New Balance”
Could the UK soon lose sovereignty over Diego Garcia? If so, the US would lose another key base in the Indo-Pacific. And how are Oman and Qatar planning for the future? Could the US even project force again into a major Afghan operation, or into Iraq?
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Ethiopia’s Naval Revival Has Global Ramifications
CRIME & CORRUPTION
Sierra Leone Begins Slipping Back to “Business as Usual”
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
EARLY WARNING | Self-Fulfilling Lunacies of Short-Termism
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 10/2018
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EARLY WARNING | Settling in for the Long, Long War
SOVEREIGNTY
The Inevitable Return of Sovereignty
History's cyclical patterns make the case that sovereignty must make its return as the dominant driver of the global strategic architecture of the 21st Century, whether we like it or not. And apparently most societies demand it, particularly when uncertainty strikes.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | US's Turkey Divorce Complicated by Qatar, Iran, Syria, Russia
The strategic path along which the US and Turkey are traveling has an element of fatalism about it, given that each side fears the divorce for a range of different reasons.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Greater Syria: Can Wishing Make It So?
Historical fatalism, water and food shortages, and jihadism conspire to set the stage for a major conflict escalation based on “Greater Syria”. It is already underway.
Afghanistan
The Triumph of Belief: Persian Cæsar?
Not just Iran’s Cæsar abroad, Major-General Qasem Soleimani is finally being recognized as Iran’s “Man on Horseback”.