HISTORY
CRIME & CORRUPTION
Terror and Crime: The Indissoluble Marriage’s Second Honeymoon
Contact and cooperation between militant groups and organized crime — an historical match of illegals — has flourished since the early 1990s, eroding political stability around the world.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Can Erdogan’s “Conflict in All Directions” Strategy Work?
Turkey seems to be at war on all fronts, particularly with its nominal allies. How can that work?
Australia
ESSENTIAL READING | Over the Beach Again
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Global Alignments: CANZUK Emerges from the Fog
Less than an empire, more than a commonwealth: a cohesive arrangement of the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand offers new global geopolitical possibilities as perhaps the ultimate maritime power base.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Amorphous Warfare: Genocide is Alive and Well in Africa
The Oromo war against Ethiopian nationalists and ethnic Amhara peoples is driven by small extremist groups, supported by foreign governments. But it is virulent and gaining traction. Moreover, its impact is strategic.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Shinzo Abe’s Departure at a Difficult Time
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
“No Deal Brexit” Now Likely, and May Determine the Fate of Ireland
Dublin may now have to consider withdrawal from the EU and seek entry into free trading agreements which would include the UK, US, Canada, and possibly Australasia. It would add to the momentum breaking up the European Union.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Beijing Responds to India and Cements a Bond With Iran
India not only humiliated the People’s Liberation Army in Ladakh, Kashmir, in June 2020, it made it clear to Beijing that it intended to confront the People’s Republic of China’s landbridge via Kashmir to the Indian Ocean, and to outflank it in Central Asia. Beijing responded with substance in Iran.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 08/2020
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
War as a (Fatal) Diversion From Reality
Egypt has been in a proxy war with Ethiopia. Ethiopia failed to grasp this, because war would seem fatal for both sides. Then Egypt stepped back from the brink.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Crisis or Opportunity in the Southern Caucasus?
US legislation would unambiguously recognize that the “illegally occupied” areas of Azerbaijan would include the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts occupied by Armenia since the early 1990s. This would be a significant political advance for Azerbaijan.