GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
SOVEREIGNTY
A New Middle East Has Emerged
It is an all-new greater Middle East, and the locals mostly now answer to themselves.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Global Architecture: Xi in Arabia
It was more consequential than Washington realized. But now the battle has been joined.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Unready Now; Uncertain Future
Economic, social, and military instabilities escalate, but readiness to face them evaporates.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Türkiye: The Master of Fake Provocations Rises Again
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 12/2022
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran: Death Before Disorder
Iran's clerics are suppressing protests with unprecedented vigor. But then what?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Horn of Africa - War is Over: Long Live the War?
Part of the great war in Ethiopia may be over. But another part is still virulent.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New China Sea
Beijing is now strategically dominating the Caribbean Basin. Washington remains quiet.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Xi Consolidates Power with Deliberately Contradictory Moves
Xi Jinping needed, once the Party Congress was over, to re-assert calm over his domestic and international arenas, but there seems little he can do to blunt the PRC’s worsening economic situation and accompany-ing social unrest.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | “Global Britain” or “Middling Britain”: A New Crossroads
PERSONNEL