PERSONNEL
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CALIR | The End of “Business as Usual”
The Ukraine war has helped crystallize a confluence of negative strategic trends.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | On the Concept of Strategic Inevitability
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Indonesia’s Uncertainties Pique Beijing’s Hopes
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 03/2022
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
ESSENTIAL READING | Where Lies Sanity?
RESOURCES
How the Ukraine War Has Saved Communist China
Beijing finally has the chance to throw off some of its dependency on US food supplies, giving it an enormous new lease of strategic freedom.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Surviving the First Shot
It is said that no plan of campaign survives beyond the first shot fired. But, in the case of the Russia-Ukraine military campaign of February-March 2022, and — most importantly — all that contrived to its beginning, some trends and lessons are already visible.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Under the Ukraine Cloud, PRC Makes First Challenge to AUKUS
The Solomons and Kiribati moves place the PRC into the South Pacific, beyond the First Island Chain. This would inhibit AUKUS’ ability to protect Taiwan in the event of war. It would also put the PRC astride the junction of major undersea comms cables near the Solomons.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Canada’s Justin Trudeau Ignites a New Worldwide Trend
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 02/2022
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE