PERSONNEL
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Uzbekistan’s Most Significant Strategic Shift Since the Soviet Era
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
What Does Beijing Do Now?
Presidential elections in Taiwan repudiated PRC pressure, just as protests in Hong Kong have done. Beijing hoped 2019 would be the year that all significant opposition to its strategic rise would be silenced.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
What Happens in the Vacuum After the Passing of Sultan Qaboos of Oman?
Oman will remain a pillar of stability because of Qaboos’ legacy, but he will be profoundly missed.
CRIME & CORRUPTION
Death of a Nation: South Africa’s Refusal to Correct its Course of Corruption and Anger
Collapse in South Africa would have a significant impact on all Southern African regional states and societies, but it would also impact the global trading community and the guarantee of Atlantic-to-Indian Ocean maritime security.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
State of the World: Parlous, Transforming, Yet in Some Ways Stabilizing, Optimistic
The optimism may be hard to find, but the fact that crisis is now clearly upon us gives a certain clarity.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
EARLY WARNING | The Strategic Importance of Self-Deception
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | South China Sea Clashes Inch the Balance Against Beijing
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 01/2020
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
The Butterfly Effect of Tremors in Small States
In chaos theory, a minute localized change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. And the elections in Dominica will play a significant rôle in the future strategic futures of Beijing as well as Washington, DC. But the impact will also reach Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and so on.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran Between Temptation and Desperation
A significant impact is likely on world energy markets over 2020 along with escalation of attacks by Iranian-backed units against US and other targets following the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Uzbekistan Re-Emerges as the Strategic “Heartland of the Heartland”
Uzbekistan is emerging as the “strategic surprise player”, galvanizing the Silk Road and Central Asia.