STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Nuclear Powers in the Act of Colliding
Iran now considers war against Israel to be feasible and winnable…and Israel responds
SOVEREIGNTY
Sovereignty in the Age of Beijing: Can the PRC “Save” Australia? Or Any Nation?
Many Australians believe that their nation is caught in a wedge between the People’s Republic of China, its biggest trading partner, and the United States, its security ally and biggest investor. But is it? And what are the choices now open to sovereign states as the new global architecture emerges?
SOVEREIGNTY
A New “East-West” Fault Line
A new strategic framework is possible in which the US could regain some leverage in the Balkans and Eastern Mediterranean. And it could see a resolution of the Kosovo problem which has dogged US credibility in the region since 2008.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Bolton Effect: Then, Now, and Next
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Iran Crosses a Threshold to Secure Regional Power
Iran’s leadership is confident it has succeeded in deterring the US from attack, and that Iran has now secured regional dominance as the US, it believes, winds down in the Persian Gulf.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Yemen Starts to Fracture, But is the Biggest Strategic Loss to the US?
The differentiation between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the UAE and Oman … the impact on Bahrain … the uncertainties of the proposed pax Russo-Sinica in the Gulf … the prospect of a new opening for the US …
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
A Chinese Dawn Over the Persian Gulf
Saudi Arabia and the UAE move away from the US. Iran cements its ties with Beijing and Moscow. It’s another major stage in a very new Middle East.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | Change, When it is Seen to Appear, is Sudden
SOVEREIGNTY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | A Window of Opportunity Opens for the US in the Balkans
Events have conspired in the Eastern Mediterranean to open a new chapter of strategic opportunity for the United States, just as US-Turkish relations have moved into a profound downward direction.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Defense and Strategic Planning Challenges in an Entirely New Age
Trends in geopolitical, economic, and technological developments increasingly need to be viewed within a global context. The age of stovepiping, which worked during much of the Cold War, cannot be expected to work now, or through the coming decades. Everything is connected.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Hong Kong's Protests Reflect the New Global Strategic Realities Challenging Beijing
Affairs in smaller geopolitical entities — such as Hong Kong and Dominica — show significant vulnerabilities in Beijing's apparently seamless rise to strategic power.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Turkey After the F-35 Cancellation: the Potential Impact on Cyprus
Turkey's actions toward Cyprus are now likely to strongly reflect the breakdown in Turkey's relations with the United States and the European Union.