SOVEREIGNTY
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Breaking Stalemates: Current Context
There is no doubt that Iran and North Korea have capable nuclear weapons systems and the means to deliver them. This has created in their leaderships a new-found confidence, which has been expressed in recent actions.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Breaking Stalemates: Israel-Syria
Thoughts on the evolution and near-term impact of nuclear stalemates between the West and “rogue” states as the US withdraws from the “nuclear deal” with Iran. First, the historical lessons learned from the Israeli confrontation of Syria over its nuclear weapons program.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Saudi Arabia’s Fortunes Reach a Critical Juncture
Saudi Arabia has plunged its immediate region into major strategic uncertainty.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Britain Comes Home to the World, But Where Is Its Plan?
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Trump Iran Decision: Yes, But What Does It Really Mean?
US Pres. Donald Trump’s move to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear pact was anticipated, and dire forecasts proliferated as to the impact of such a move. But what, in the end, does it really mean? The pact had not led to a real opening between Iran and the West.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Now It Gets Murky: How the US-DPRK Talks Can Evolve
Suddenly, the lights of the diplomatic theater dim, and a wider cast of players — more than initially indicated — move in the shadows. Until now, it has been a game of relatively honest posturing: brightly lit theater.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Is Erdoğan Pushing for Conflict to Galvanize Turkey?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Great Game: The DPRK-US Minuette
The impending Trump-Kim talks, as forecast a year ago, provided the first challenge of global consequence to the strategic rise of the PRC. Beijing has already begun to respond. There are more than two dancers in this minuette.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Current Estimate: Turkey’s Flawed Invasion of Syria
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
The Battle of Washington
The US, a year after the election of a new President, remains deeply engaged in a war between an entrenched “establishment” and that disruptive new President. What is significant is that there are no “war correspondents”, so there is an uninformed electorate.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
Devouring the Kingdom
US-Saudi and Saudi-PRC relations are a factor in continued US dollar dominance. Beijing is poised to become a major rival to the US for influence in Saudi Arabia, and this could become the hub of the launch of the renminbi as a global currency.