CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Greater Syria: Can Wishing Make It So?
Historical fatalism, water and food shortages, and jihadism conspire to set the stage for a major conflict escalation based on “Greater Syria”. It is already underway.
Afghanistan
The Triumph of Belief: Persian Cæsar?
Not just Iran’s Cæsar abroad, Major-General Qasem Soleimani is finally being recognized as Iran’s “Man on Horseback”.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 07/2018
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Indonesia Moves to a Bigger Stage, Despite Ongoing Domestic Issues
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Turkey on the March
Afghanistan
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Beijing, Tehran: Suzerainty, New Colonialism, and Crime
SOVEREIGNTY
On the Matter of Constitutional and Institutional Choice
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Breaking Stalemates: Current Context
There is no doubt that Iran and North Korea have capable nuclear weapons systems and the means to deliver them. This has created in their leaderships a new-found confidence, which has been expressed in recent actions.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Breaking Stalemates: Israel-Syria
Thoughts on the evolution and near-term impact of nuclear stalemates between the West and “rogue” states as the US withdraws from the “nuclear deal” with Iran. First, the historical lessons learned from the Israeli confrontation of Syria over its nuclear weapons program.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Saudi Arabia’s Fortunes Reach a Critical Juncture
Saudi Arabia has plunged its immediate region into major strategic uncertainty.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Is Erdoğan Pushing for Conflict to Galvanize Turkey?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR