CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Greater Syria: Can Wishing Make It So?
Historical fatalism, water and food shortages, and jihadism conspire to set the stage for a major conflict escalation based on “Greater Syria”. It is already underway.
Afghanistan
The Triumph of Belief: Persian Cæsar?
Not just Iran’s Cæsar abroad, Major-General Qasem Soleimani is finally being recognized as Iran’s “Man on Horseback”.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Triumph of Belief: Red Sea Rising
The Red Sea is emerging as a key global strategic dynamic thanks to a revolution begun in Ethiopia. The transformation moves back to a 3,000-year-old pattern, and is far from done.
SOVEREIGNTY
On the Matter of Constitutional and Institutional Choice
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Breaking Stalemates: Current Context
There is no doubt that Iran and North Korea have capable nuclear weapons systems and the means to deliver them. This has created in their leaderships a new-found confidence, which has been expressed in recent actions.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Breaking Stalemates: Israel-Syria
Thoughts on the evolution and near-term impact of nuclear stalemates between the West and “rogue” states as the US withdraws from the “nuclear deal” with Iran. First, the historical lessons learned from the Israeli confrontation of Syria over its nuclear weapons program.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Trump Iran Decision: Yes, But What Does It Really Mean?
US Pres. Donald Trump’s move to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear pact was anticipated, and dire forecasts proliferated as to the impact of such a move. But what, in the end, does it really mean? The pact had not led to a real opening between Iran and the West.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Now It Gets Murky: How the US-DPRK Talks Can Evolve
Suddenly, the lights of the diplomatic theater dim, and a wider cast of players — more than initially indicated — move in the shadows. Until now, it has been a game of relatively honest posturing: brightly lit theater.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Is Erdoğan Pushing for Conflict to Galvanize Turkey?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Searching for Meaning in the US National Security Strategy
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Persia Rising: Strategic Ramifications of Iran’s Regional Proxies
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA