SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Can Erdogan’s “Conflict in All Directions” Strategy Work?
Turkey seems to be at war on all fronts, particularly with its nominal allies. How can that work?
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 10/2019
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
A Chinese Dawn Over the Persian Gulf
Saudi Arabia and the UAE move away from the US. Iran cements its ties with Beijing and Moscow. It’s another major stage in a very new Middle East.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Turkey After the F-35 Cancellation: the Potential Impact on Cyprus
Turkey's actions toward Cyprus are now likely to strongly reflect the breakdown in Turkey's relations with the United States and the European Union.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Iran: The Art of the Bazaar Deal
US Pres. Donald Trump tried his “Art of the Deal” approach to get Iranian leaders to the negotiating table. But Iran’s clerical leader has adopted a different approach, designed to ensure the continuation of the leadership, even if it means suffering through a war.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Persian Phoenix?
Iran has rejected pressures from Moscow and Beijing not to surge to dominate the Middle East. Where does this leave all the other players?
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
The Middle East Returns to Itself?
And how the Trump-Sisi summit marked a significant further decline in Washington’s influence in the region.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Turkish Brinkmanship is Very Near the Brink
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Moving Beyond Strategic Distractions
The deep and intractable humanitarian morass of the Yemen conflict has diverted attention away from the broader strategic framework, with serious consequences.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
A New “Middle Eastern Entente” Shakes Moscow and Washington
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Changes in the Indian Ocean at the Core of the “New Balance”
Could the UK soon lose sovereignty over Diego Garcia? If so, the US would lose another key base in the Indo-Pacific. And how are Oman and Qatar planning for the future? Could the US even project force again into a major Afghan operation, or into Iraq?
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY