STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Russia and Turkey: Not War in the Offing, But Something Far More Important
It is now apparent that Russia can no longer ignore the reality that Turkey will remain the major impediment to Russia's control over its strategic ability to escape the containment of geography as well as geopolitics. The question is: what can it do about it, and when?
SOVEREIGNTY
Break-up: The Medium-Term Prospect for Turkey, Saudi Arabia
The break-up of the United Kingdom as a result of Scottish separatism, or the break-up of Spain due to Catalan secessionism, or of Canada: all can be discussed. But a major challenge of the coming decade or so will be whether Turkey and Saudi Arabia can remain intact as states.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Elections Move Turkey to Civil War, Rather Than Stability
Turkish Pres. Reçep Tayyip Erdogan deliberately pushed the massive migratory flow into Europe to blackmail the EU into pre-election support for his party. It worked. Will he now, as he promised, stem the flow?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
2015: The Year of Opportunity and Danger
ASIA
The US and the Northern Tier: Iran Ascendant?
US Pres. Barack Obama’s removal of Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and the failure thus far on talks with Iran seem likely to compound US strategic challenges in the coming two years. What is significant is that the issue is not really about nuclear weapons; it is about Iran’s strategic growth.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Turkey’s Kurdish Truce Ends; War Resumes on Assad
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Souda Bay: Again Vital in the Eastern Med.
As Turkey slips in terms of NATO reliability, planners look at changing threat and access patterns in the Eastern Mediterranean and Levant.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 07/2014
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Turkey: At the Point of No Return
Turkey’s leader has unveiled himself to claim sole authority. Where does he go from here?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EARLY WARNING | Why the Islamic Caliphate May Presage Change
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The Middle East: The Khorasan Pledge
How the Great Intra-Muslim War Now Underway Could Re-Shape Much of the Middle East