SOVEREIGNTY
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 03/2024
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Sierra Leone: “Another Rwanda”?
Pres. Bio is increasingly turning his attempts to retain power into an ethnic civil war.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Nigeria: Shutting Down African Democracy
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Sierra Leone's Crisis Highlights an Africa Breaking with the Past
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Coup d’État as a “Democratic Response” to Pseudo-Coup
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Türkiye’s Strategic Penetration of Africa
Türkiye has established itself as a major strategic force in Africa, and works extensively through front groups controlled by its national intelligence service and a related “private military contractor”, SADAT.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
One BRIC at a Time
The Africa-Middle East space and the implications of the BRICS expansion and rising instability: it’s all about perception, and perception counts.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The New Scramble in Africa
Now the fruits of Africa’s new era of coups are apparent, not just with the coup in Niger, but also with the other recent coups and “non-constitutional” changes of government.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
A New Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Matrix is Evolving
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRACTORIES | Taking Meaning — and Lessons — from Mutinies
Western analysts have been consistently keen to demonize Vladimir Putin, and predict his early departure. Wishful thinking is never good policy analysis. Assassinations and illness are always wild-cards and possibilities. But the Wagner episode was a mutiny in a teacup.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New Middle East and Africa: The Red Sea Change of Command
Moscow has moved rapidly to rebuild its influence in the Horn of Africa — and Africa generally — to position itself for “Cold War II”, and Washington is attempting to catch up.