GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
SOVEREIGNTY
The Inevitable Return of Sovereignty
History's cyclical patterns make the case that sovereignty must make its return as the dominant driver of the global strategic architecture of the 21st Century, whether we like it or not. And apparently most societies demand it, particularly when uncertainty strikes.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
EN CLAIR | Nigeria’s Buhari Government Implodes
Nigeria’s internal security situation was, by mid-August 2018, almost at a tipping point, with the Government of Pres. Muhammadu Buhari now unable to control corruption, law enforcement, or the war against insurgents.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Triumph of Belief: Red Sea Rising
The Red Sea is emerging as a key global strategic dynamic thanks to a revolution begun in Ethiopia. The transformation moves back to a 3,000-year-old pattern, and is far from done.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Africa II: Nigeria Prepares for a Major Challenge to Buhari, But First...
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Ethiopia Moves to Re-Establish Itself as a Red Sea Power
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Africa I: Abiy Transforms the Horn, and Egypt’s Position
Indicators of emerging patterns of global significance
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
EN CLAIR | Nigeria’s Political Processes Grind Toward Change in 2018-19
SOVEREIGNTY
EARLY WARNING | The Forgotten Do Not Forget
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Ankara and Abuja: Dancing Around Terrorism Issues
SOVEREIGNTY
Cratometamorphosis: Inclusion, Exclusion, Seclusion?
The mounting hysteria over secessionist and sovereignty movements — whether in Catalonia, Scotland, Kurdistan, Turkey, West Papua, or Oromia — should cause political leaders to reflect on the causes of national schisms rather than merely to attempt to suppress them.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES