GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New Middle East and Africa: The Red Sea Change of Command
Moscow has moved rapidly to rebuild its influence in the Horn of Africa — and Africa generally — to position itself for “Cold War II”, and Washington is attempting to catch up.
Argentina
When the Balloon Goes Up …
Balloon warfare has been advancing for years. Now, a public outcry at PRC balloon ops has generated a strategic watershed, damaging to Beijing.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
AUKUS: Some Steps Forward, Some Back
The AUKUS alliance is moving toward a viable global operational structure, as much to deal with the world after the potential collapse of the Communist Party of China, as to confront Beijing today. But is Australia, its smallest partner, still thinking just too small?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Elections Which Mark 2023 as a Key Year
The reality is that elections, even in small nation-states, can have global consequences.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Global Architecture: Xi in Arabia
It was more consequential than Washington realized. But now the battle has been joined.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Unready Now; Uncertain Future
Economic, social, and military instabilities escalate, but readiness to face them evaporates.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | The Endless Saga of Balkan Mischief
Washington and London are taking advantage of the distraction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to maneuver against Russia’s allies — or, more logically, Russia’s perceived allies — in the Balkans. Washington and London are working to broaden the proxy war against Russia.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Türkiye: The Master of Fake Provocations Rises Again
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Alliances: Know When to Fold 'em
We cling to old alliances as we cling to childhood blankets, and treat them just as badly. But do we understand them, and their finite lifespans and purposes?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Xi Consolidates Power with Deliberately Contradictory Moves
Xi Jinping needed, once the Party Congress was over, to re-assert calm over his domestic and international arenas, but there seems little he can do to blunt the PRC’s worsening economic situation and accompany-ing social unrest.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS