SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Invisible War: How Conflict in Ethiopia Has Global Consequences
Could a confederation between Ethiopia and Eritrea resolve Red Sea security issues?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
The Caucasus: How Close is Armenia to Collapse?
Yerevan’s long list of self-inflicted wounds has culminated with its “break with Moscow”.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Geopolitics: The Re-Shaped Middle East Is Transforming the World
Old concepts of “the Middle East” using various geographic models, or using Arab or Arabic or Muslim overlays, are now not representative of the “new Middle East” which is, for the first time in centuries, less definable than ever, by its name and by other simple descriptors.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Türkiye’s Aggressive Military Expansion in the Horn of Africa
Türkiye’s ballistic missile program is expanding significantly as it not only expands cooperation with Pakistan, but also creates a test range in Somalia. Ankara now dominates the Horn of Africa in many military-diplomatic and trade matters.
AFRICA
Ethiopia: Close to Major Change?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Egypt’s Pres. Sisi Clears the Decks for Meaningful Action
A staff estimate on a topic of current importance
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Insurance Companies as Drivers of Strategic Outcomes
So far, the Yemeni attacks have been militarily ineffective, albeit psychologically critical. This is, in fact, primarily a psychological war gambit, and the impact on shipping insurance costs is proving strategically significant.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Nigeria: Shutting Down African Democracy
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Waiting for Another Historical Parting on the Red Sea
So far, the Fano groups have not had foreign support, except for the moral support of Eritrea. But the next phase will see — as it did with the Arbegnoch in the 1939-41 phase — the establishment of unified communications and command.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
How Real is IMEC? As Real as AUKUS?
The surprise announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor lacks clarity as to the US's intention in drafting the concept, and how it will proceed.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Türkiye’s Strategic Penetration of Africa
Türkiye has established itself as a major strategic force in Africa, and works extensively through front groups controlled by its national intelligence service and a related “private military contractor”, SADAT.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
One BRIC at a Time
The Africa-Middle East space and the implications of the BRICS expansion and rising instability: it’s all about perception, and perception counts.