DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Persian Phoenix?
Iran has rejected pressures from Moscow and Beijing not to surge to dominate the Middle East. Where does this leave all the other players?
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
The Middle East Returns to Itself?
And how the Trump-Sisi summit marked a significant further decline in Washington’s influence in the region.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Moving Beyond Strategic Distractions
The deep and intractable humanitarian morass of the Yemen conflict has diverted attention away from the broader strategic framework, with serious consequences.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
A New “Middle Eastern Entente” Shakes Moscow and Washington
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Changes in the Indian Ocean at the Core of the “New Balance”
Could the UK soon lose sovereignty over Diego Garcia? If so, the US would lose another key base in the Indo-Pacific. And how are Oman and Qatar planning for the future? Could the US even project force again into a major Afghan operation, or into Iraq?
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Ethiopia’s Naval Revival Has Global Ramifications
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Yemen, the Unnecessary War
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Iran Maneuvers to Face Internal, External Challenges
SOVEREIGNTY
The Inevitable Return of Sovereignty
History's cyclical patterns make the case that sovereignty must make its return as the dominant driver of the global strategic architecture of the 21st Century, whether we like it or not. And apparently most societies demand it, particularly when uncertainty strikes.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Triumph of Belief: Red Sea Rising
The Red Sea is emerging as a key global strategic dynamic thanks to a revolution begun in Ethiopia. The transformation moves back to a 3,000-year-old pattern, and is far from done.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Ethiopia Moves to Re-Establish Itself as a Red Sea Power
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Africa I: Abiy Transforms the Horn, and Egypt’s Position
Indicators of emerging patterns of global significance