STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New China Sea
Beijing is now strategically dominating the Caribbean Basin. Washington remains quiet.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Alliances: Know When to Fold 'em
We cling to old alliances as we cling to childhood blankets, and treat them just as badly. But do we understand them, and their finite lifespans and purposes?
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Xi Consolidates Power with Deliberately Contradictory Moves
Xi Jinping needed, once the Party Congress was over, to re-assert calm over his domestic and international arenas, but there seems little he can do to blunt the PRC’s worsening economic situation and accompany-ing social unrest.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Global Situation Report: Calm in the Eye of the Storm
China’s communists have now placed their fate, and the fate of China’s unwilling people, firmly in the hands of one man. The probable result is the deliberate implosion of mainland China’s economy, a key catalyst in an already unstable global strategic architecture.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Moving to the Major Phase of the PRC’s “New Civil War”
The civil war within the party moves into a new phase of suppression of Xi’s opponents and the broader public. The damage to the international economy will be immense. The cost to the Chinese people will be immeasurably more severe.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Putin’s Sudden Turning Point
The stark East-West divide — or re-divide — was not irrevocable until now.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Xi’s Gamble Becomes Precarious, but Where Is the West?
Western leaderships, by missing the cue on the PRC, have drawn down military stores, particularly operational ammunition levels, to dangerous levels to help Ukraine fight Russia. Forces in the Indo-Pacific have become depleted and vulnerable.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Southern Africa Instability Now at Dangerous Levels
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
EN CLAIR | Xi Jinping Battles to Retain Credibility in the Run-Up to the 20th Party Congress
Just how secure is Xi Jinping in his bid for a third term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China? His actions against Taiwan show desperation.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Defining Governance in Times of Strategic Instability
Do we even understand the four terms which will guide our command over the future: Sovereignty, Democracy, Monarchy, Republic?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Military Conflict Evolves, and with It, Uncertainty
Armed conflicts are now more likely to occur, but warfighting lessons — from Russia-Ukraine and the PRC-ROC/US — are still incomplete, and outcomes uncertain.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY