SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
The Indo-Pacific: EABO and the Need for Speed
Strategic shock in the Pacific might occur as suddenly as it did in Ukraine. Who's ready?
RESOURCES
How the Ukraine War Has Saved Communist China
Beijing finally has the chance to throw off some of its dependency on US food supplies, giving it an enormous new lease of strategic freedom.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Surviving the First Shot
It is said that no plan of campaign survives beyond the first shot fired. But, in the case of the Russia-Ukraine military campaign of February-March 2022, and — most importantly — all that contrived to its beginning, some trends and lessons are already visible.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Under the Ukraine Cloud, PRC Makes First Challenge to AUKUS
The Solomons and Kiribati moves place the PRC into the South Pacific, beyond the First Island Chain. This would inhibit AUKUS’ ability to protect Taiwan in the event of war. It would also put the PRC astride the junction of major undersea comms cables near the Solomons.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Military Superiority versus Strategic Superiority
The People’s Liberation Army has made impressive gains. Does it matter?
AFRICA
The PuYi Syndrome
Washington, the Americas, and the Tragedy of PuYi: How the US awakes and finds itself isolated in its own region.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
US-Russia: Do All Major Wars Begin With “Phony Wars”?
It started as an information dominance campaign carried out abroad to distract US voters from the unpopularity of their government, running up to new elections. But it has placed Ukraine in a no-win situation, and has already led to a profound and lasting division in NATO.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Australia Commits to Further Global Projection
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Wars and Rumors of Wars: How the US is Responding to Beijing's New Total War
“And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.” — Matthew 24:6 in the New Testament.
RESOURCES
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Beijing’s Energy Crisis Hobbles the PRC, and Hurts All
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Perception is Power in the Beijing Gavotte
Beijing senses some real relief in the way the US is handling bilateral discussions.
Afghanistan
AUKUS: The Dysfunctional Birth and Accidental Promise of the West’s New Global Alliance
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States hastily created a new global alliance, but its founders have different views of alliance priorities. AUKUS might actually work, but the US seems intent on jeopardizing Red Sea security, critical to making the bloc work.