SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
EN CLAIR | An African Church Schism Becomes a Global Trigger
Ethiopia’s next leader could create the grand coalition of the Red Sea.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
A Wargame Postulating an Initial “Battle of Taiwan”
The Washington think-tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), recently held a revealing wargaming exercise on a PRC invasion of Taiwan.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Beijing’s Eurasia Strategy May Deliver Beijing its Coup de Main
Xi Jinping, facing a collapsing PRC domestic economy and food supply, could broker a Ukraine war peace which would bring Ukraine back into the Eurasian fold. After all, he has now completed a major consolidation of influence over Iran and Saudi Arabia, supported by Iraq and Oman.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
ESSENTIAL READING | Chips as the Main Meal
Important New Strategic Literature
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
EN CLAIR | Türkiye’s Implosion and Isolation From the West
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New Middle East and Africa: The Red Sea Change of Command
Moscow has moved rapidly to rebuild its influence in the Horn of Africa — and Africa generally — to position itself for “Cold War II”, and Washington is attempting to catch up.
Argentina
When the Balloon Goes Up …
Balloon warfare has been advancing for years. Now, a public outcry at PRC balloon ops has generated a strategic watershed, damaging to Beijing.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Elections Which Mark 2023 as a Key Year
The reality is that elections, even in small nation-states, can have global consequences.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
CURRENT ESTIMATE | CNP: Beijing’s Self-Defeating Strategic Methodology
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 01/2023
SOVEREIGNTY
A New Middle East Has Emerged
It is an all-new greater Middle East, and the locals mostly now answer to themselves.