PERSONNEL
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Trump Iran Decision: Yes, But What Does It Really Mean?
US Pres. Donald Trump’s move to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear pact was anticipated, and dire forecasts proliferated as to the impact of such a move. But what, in the end, does it really mean? The pact had not led to a real opening between Iran and the West.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Now It Gets Murky: How the US-DPRK Talks Can Evolve
Suddenly, the lights of the diplomatic theater dim, and a wider cast of players — more than initially indicated — move in the shadows. Until now, it has been a game of relatively honest posturing: brightly lit theater.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Is Erdoğan Pushing for Conflict to Galvanize Turkey?
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 03/2018
CRIME & CORRUPTION
Great Power Politics: The Skripal Case
Why Were Basic Questions Being Ignored and Distractions Employed?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Great Game: The DPRK-US Minuette
The impending Trump-Kim talks, as forecast a year ago, provided the first challenge of global consequence to the strategic rise of the PRC. Beijing has already begun to respond. There are more than two dancers in this minuette.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Current Estimate: Turkey’s Flawed Invasion of Syria
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
The Battle of Washington
The US, a year after the election of a new President, remains deeply engaged in a war between an entrenched “establishment” and that disruptive new President. What is significant is that there are no “war correspondents”, so there is an uninformed electorate.
ECONOMICS & BUSINESS
Devouring the Kingdom
US-Saudi and Saudi-PRC relations are a factor in continued US dollar dominance. Beijing is poised to become a major rival to the US for influence in Saudi Arabia, and this could become the hub of the launch of the renminbi as a global currency.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Strategic Trajectories: The Emerging Indo-Pacific Quad Has Shadow Alliances Around It
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES