CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Greater Syria: Can Wishing Make It So?
Historical fatalism, water and food shortages, and jihadism conspire to set the stage for a major conflict escalation based on “Greater Syria”. It is already underway.
Afghanistan
The Triumph of Belief: Persian Cæsar?
Not just Iran’s Cæsar abroad, Major-General Qasem Soleimani is finally being recognized as Iran’s “Man on Horseback”.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Triumph of Belief: Red Sea Rising
The Red Sea is emerging as a key global strategic dynamic thanks to a revolution begun in Ethiopia. The transformation moves back to a 3,000-year-old pattern, and is far from done.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Ethiopia Moves to Re-Establish Itself as a Red Sea Power
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Turkey on the March
Afghanistan
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Beijing, Tehran: Suzerainty, New Colonialism, and Crime
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Transitions - 06/2018
SOVEREIGNTY
On the Matter of Constitutional and Institutional Choice
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Breaking Stalemates: Current Context
There is no doubt that Iran and North Korea have capable nuclear weapons systems and the means to deliver them. This has created in their leaderships a new-found confidence, which has been expressed in recent actions.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Saudi Arabia’s Fortunes Reach a Critical Juncture
Saudi Arabia has plunged its immediate region into major strategic uncertainty.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Trump Iran Decision: Yes, But What Does It Really Mean?
US Pres. Donald Trump’s move to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear pact was anticipated, and dire forecasts proliferated as to the impact of such a move. But what, in the end, does it really mean? The pact had not led to a real opening between Iran and the West.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Now It Gets Murky: How the US-DPRK Talks Can Evolve
Suddenly, the lights of the diplomatic theater dim, and a wider cast of players — more than initially indicated — move in the shadows. Until now, it has been a game of relatively honest posturing: brightly lit theater.