STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Iran Maneuvers to Face Internal, External Challenges
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | US's Turkey Divorce Complicated by Qatar, Iran, Syria, Russia
The strategic path along which the US and Turkey are traveling has an element of fatalism about it, given that each side fears the divorce for a range of different reasons.
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
EN CLAIR | Nigeria’s Buhari Government Implodes
Nigeria’s internal security situation was, by mid-August 2018, almost at a tipping point, with the Government of Pres. Muhammadu Buhari now unable to control corruption, law enforcement, or the war against insurgents.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Greater Syria: Can Wishing Make It So?
Historical fatalism, water and food shortages, and jihadism conspire to set the stage for a major conflict escalation based on “Greater Syria”. It is already underway.
Afghanistan
The Triumph of Belief: Persian Cæsar?
Not just Iran’s Cæsar abroad, Major-General Qasem Soleimani is finally being recognized as Iran’s “Man on Horseback”.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Triumph of Belief: Red Sea Rising
The Red Sea is emerging as a key global strategic dynamic thanks to a revolution begun in Ethiopia. The transformation moves back to a 3,000-year-old pattern, and is far from done.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Ethiopia Moves to Re-Establish Itself as a Red Sea Power
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Turkey on the March
Afghanistan
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Beijing, Tehran: Suzerainty, New Colonialism, and Crime
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Transitions - 06/2018
SOVEREIGNTY