SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Can Erdogan’s “Conflict in All Directions” Strategy Work?
Turkey seems to be at war on all fronts, particularly with its nominal allies. How can that work?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Amorphous Warfare: Genocide is Alive and Well in Africa
The Oromo war against Ethiopian nationalists and ethnic Amhara peoples is driven by small extremist groups, supported by foreign governments. But it is virulent and gaining traction. Moreover, its impact is strategic.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
War as a (Fatal) Diversion From Reality
Egypt has been in a proxy war with Ethiopia. Ethiopia failed to grasp this, because war would seem fatal for both sides. Then Egypt stepped back from the brink.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Turkey After the F-35 Cancellation: the Potential Impact on Cyprus
Turkey's actions toward Cyprus are now likely to strongly reflect the breakdown in Turkey's relations with the United States and the European Union.
CRIME & CORRUPTION
EN CLAIR | Increased Capability But Decreased Security in the Gulf of Guinea
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Options for Africa as Nigeria Moves into a “Post-Democratic” Phase
The hopes for democracy in Africa seem almost to have vanished overnight because of the disappearance of serious international scrutiny of the manipulation of electoral and governance processes, largely since “the West” abandoned the Continent to the People’s Republic of China.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Persian Phoenix?
Iran has rejected pressures from Moscow and Beijing not to surge to dominate the Middle East. Where does this leave all the other players?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Moving Beyond Strategic Distractions
The deep and intractable humanitarian morass of the Yemen conflict has diverted attention away from the broader strategic framework, with serious consequences.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions - 08/2019
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Triumph of Belief: Red Sea Rising
The Red Sea is emerging as a key global strategic dynamic thanks to a revolution begun in Ethiopia. The transformation moves back to a 3,000-year-old pattern, and is far from done.
PERSONNEL
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 07/2018
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Africa I: Abiy Transforms the Horn, and Egypt’s Position
Indicators of emerging patterns of global significance