SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Red Sea: Security Issue Surges as Ethiopian Situation Flares
Red Sea security suddenly went off the radar as far as the international community was concerned, but it is back and integrally related to the Persian Gulf crisis.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | A Storm at the World’s Trade Hub: the Bab el-Mandeb
Some regional states can claim Washington’s attention, which makes the US’s possible moves over Somaliland recognition more delicate. Control over this East-West sea route hub is so critical to trade and strategic dominance that Trump may seize what leverage he wants and leave the details for later.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
EN CLAIR | The AU Summit: How Much Did it Matter?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Geopolitics: The Re-Shaped Middle East Is Transforming the World
Old concepts of “the Middle East” using various geographic models, or using Arab or Arabic or Muslim overlays, are now not representative of the “new Middle East” which is, for the first time in centuries, less definable than ever, by its name and by other simple descriptors.
AFRICA
Ethiopia: Close to Major Change?
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
Strategic Philosophy: Cratocide of the Republics?
The transformation of the global strategic architecture is well advanced, bringing with it the slow death of some of the structures begun in the industrial revolution, and the slow birth or re-birth of identities seeking sovereign security.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Türkiye’s Strategic Penetration of Africa
Türkiye has established itself as a major strategic force in Africa, and works extensively through front groups controlled by its national intelligence service and a related “private military contractor”, SADAT.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
One BRIC at a Time
The Africa-Middle East space and the implications of the BRICS expansion and rising instability: it’s all about perception, and perception counts.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The Global Architecture: Xi in Arabia
It was more consequential than Washington realized. But now the battle has been joined.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Southern Africa Instability Now at Dangerous Levels
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Beijing's Revival of Its Eswatini War
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Return of Free-Form Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East, Northern Tier, and Africa
Coups, as a form of “regime change”, are once again “permissible” in the greater Middle East and Africa as out-of-region powers lose traction. But then what?