STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Assessing Long-Term Threats and Trends
The most important, least invested, security priority
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | Iran: The Bitterness or Emptiness of Whatever is Defined as Victory
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | We Seek Victory, But What Does It Look Like?
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | The Tragic, de facto Failure of Material Progress
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
Strategic Trends: We, the Imperialists!
We have abused the language and words of power. Our glib misuse of them hurts us and obscures the lessons of history at a time when we desperately need guidelines.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | Curfew Tolls the Knell of Parting Day
Have I not told you, these recent years, that the cycle of great civilizational change is again upon us all? That, in the familiarity of days passing into days, the certainty of our lifetimes is being brought into a new world?
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | 2026: The Consequential Years Gather Momentum
It is not as though 2025 was an inconsequential year. Many strategic trends came into focus, particularly around the (finally) visible collapse of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). But 2026 will see the clarification of even more events of global consequence.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
Universal Unrest and its Meaning
The crowds are in the streets, everywhere, and in different forms, showing signs of fatigue, anger, despair, and more. How does this impact policymaking, economics, and defense decision-making? And how can we think about, and cope, with this phenomenon?
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | The Imperial Drumbeat Quickens
Imperial conquest is returning to the world in a new form, just as we have digested the earlier ages of imperial conquests. Our world is the result of the absorption of smaller states over millennia, even most states which emerged from colonialism in the latter half of the 20th Century.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
Searching for “Democracy 2.0”, or Something Better?
The world is divided into those who think nothing can change the fundamental shape and trajectory of society, and those who think radical dislocation is already emerging. But now, more than at any time in the past 3 centuries, change is occurring, whether we wish to have a hand in shaping it, or not
HISTORY
Reinventing Nationalism
All of our philosophies and ideologies undergo transformation, whether we undertake this deliberately or through the accretion of history. But, at this time of strategic upheaval, there exists the prospect of consciously describing how future societies can be adapted.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
Surrealpolitik: Just How Effective Was the “Realpolitik” Movement?
The supposed cool, detached professionalism meant to underly “realpolitik” may have created a pseudo-realpolitik society which is just as removed from empirical analysis and pragmatic decision-making as any ego- or ideologically-based policymaking.