STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Beijing’s Intelligence Failure
Few things have shaken the leaders of the Communist Party of China (CCP) as much as the US/Israeli war against Iran.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Transformation: the Eye of the Storm
Looking at the future from within the now-maturing maelstrom of trends and actions which are shaping the next strategic era and the probable new “rules-based world order”.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Taking the Magic out of Strategic Analysis
Why were so few states prepared for the major strategic breakpoints over the past 50 years, when Defense & Foreign Affairs had consistently laid out just why change was occurring?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
After the Chaos: Will the US Be the “Indispensable Nation”?
The United States may, within a decade, have completed its move from being “the indispensable nation” — whatever that means — to becoming isolated, even as it remains the world’s sole superpower.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
CURRENT ESTIMATE | 2026: The Consequential Years Gather Momentum
It is not as though 2025 was an inconsequential year. Many strategic trends came into focus, particularly around the (finally) visible collapse of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). But 2026 will see the clarification of even more events of global consequence.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Türkiye's “Neutrality” Soon Ends
Ankara’s strategic balancing act is coming to an end, but can it achieve regional dominance before the cash and support runs out? Will the President risk conflict to forestall collapse?
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The US National Security Strategy: What Does it Actually Mean?
The Trump Doctrine will attract dismissal, but it is highly informative and important.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Post-China: Thinking Beyond Beijing
The collapse of communist China had become irrefutable as 2025 came to an end.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | A Storm at the World’s Trade Hub: the Bab el-Mandeb
Some regional states can claim Washington’s attention, which makes the US’s possible moves over Somaliland recognition more delicate. Control over this East-West sea route hub is so critical to trade and strategic dominance that Trump may seize what leverage he wants and leave the details for later.
STRATEGIC PHILOSOPHY
EARLY WARNING | The Imperial Drumbeat Quickens
Imperial conquest is returning to the world in a new form, just as we have digested the earlier ages of imperial conquests. Our world is the result of the absorption of smaller states over millennia, even most states which emerged from colonialism in the latter half of the 20th Century.
HISTORY
Red Sea History is Today’s Framework
Sovereignty, Strategy, and the Red Sea: Ethiopia’s 1875-1876 War and the Return of Global Competition in North-East Africa.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
CURRENT ESTIMATE | How the US Prepares to Defeat the PRC in the Caribbean
It is not a question of if the US was now prepared to bring its conflict with Venezuela to a head; it was, by mid-October 2025, merely a matter of when and to what degree the matter would be brought to resolution.