GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | US's Turkey Divorce Complicated by Qatar, Iran, Syria, Russia
The strategic path along which the US and Turkey are traveling has an element of fatalism about it, given that each side fears the divorce for a range of different reasons.
CULTURE, PSYCHOLOGY & MEDIA
Greater Syria: Can Wishing Make It So?
Historical fatalism, water and food shortages, and jihadism conspire to set the stage for a major conflict escalation based on “Greater Syria”. It is already underway.
Afghanistan
The Triumph of Belief: Persian Cæsar?
Not just Iran’s Cæsar abroad, Major-General Qasem Soleimani is finally being recognized as Iran’s “Man on Horseback”.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
EN CLAIR | Indonesia Moves to a Bigger Stage, Despite Ongoing Domestic Issues
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
Turkey on the March
Afghanistan
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Beijing, Tehran: Suzerainty, New Colonialism, and Crime
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
EN CLAIR | Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Malaysia: Russia Insures Against the PRC
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Breaking Stalemates: Current Context
There is no doubt that Iran and North Korea have capable nuclear weapons systems and the means to deliver them. This has created in their leaderships a new-found confidence, which has been expressed in recent actions.
HARDWARE, WEAPONRY & TECHNOLOGY
Breaking Stalemates: Israel-Syria
Thoughts on the evolution and near-term impact of nuclear stalemates between the West and “rogue” states as the US withdraws from the “nuclear deal” with Iran. First, the historical lessons learned from the Israeli confrontation of Syria over its nuclear weapons program.
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
Trump Iran Decision: Yes, But What Does It Really Mean?
US Pres. Donald Trump’s move to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear pact was anticipated, and dire forecasts proliferated as to the impact of such a move. But what, in the end, does it really mean? The pact had not led to a real opening between Iran and the West.
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR