SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Washington's Stumbling War Against Ethiopia
How the US plunges into the defeat of its own and Western interests in the Horn of Africa
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
Central Asia's Theater
How the US withdrawal from Afghanistan started a chain which led to Kazakhstan's coup
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
Persistent Intervention: The Kremlin’s Influence Operations in Ukraine
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Bracing for an Unusual Climax in the Horn of Africa
It was possible that the Ethiopian Military could have staged a coup against Dr Abiy, but even a military-controlled post-Abiy government would have had to move quickly to stop the rebels and their foreign sponsors, which include the Egyptian and US governments.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
EN CLAIR | Return of Free-Form Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East, Northern Tier, and Africa
Coups, as a form of “regime change”, are once again “permissible” in the greater Middle East and Africa as out-of-region powers lose traction. But then what?
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Beijing, Moscow, Ankara Push US Out of Red Sea Dominance
State Dept. sources admit privately that they were using the same playbook against Ethiopia as they used during the US Clinton Administration against Serbia in the 1990s to break up Yugoslavia and Serbia.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
The New “Go” Complexity of the Global “Great Game”
The chess-board of Central Asia’s “Great Game” was transformed into the intense complexity of the ancient Chinese game of Go — Weiqi — when the collapse of the latest phase of the eternal Afghan wars sent the consequences virally through global security frameworks.
STRATEGY & INTELLIGENCE
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Afghanistan’s Centrality to the PRC, Russia, and India
DIPLOMACY, ALLIANCES & TREATIES
EN CLAIR | Cold War Redux: The West Loses Africa’s Horn
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Pres. Ebrahim Raisi: A Hard Man in a Strategic Cage
SECURITY, UNREST & WAR
ESSENTIAL READING | Cold War Redux?
Important New Strategic Literature
GOVERNANCE & ELECTIONS